Cascading Bayesian Foresight Engine — Back-Casting Calibrated
| Back-Cast | Years | Key Finding |
|---|---|---|
| 1976 → 2026 | 50 | CFPE underpredicted technological shifts by 5-10x |
| 1950 → 2000 | 50 | Overpredicted speculative tech (fusion, flying cars) |
| 1926 → 1976 | 50 | Underpredicted engineering shifts, overpredicted theory |
| Bias | Correction |
|---|---|
| Underconfidence in near-term tech | Era 1 tech priors x3.0 |
| Overconfidence in speculative theory | Era 3-4 theory priors x0.3 |
| Engineering vs theory asymmetry | 3:1 asymmetry correction |
| "Already in pipeline" blindness | Add precursor detection module |
| Continuity baseline overconfidence | Adjust per field's rate of change |
| Domain | Shifts/Decade |
|---|---|
| Computing/IT | ~3 |
| Physics (fundamental) | ~0.3 |
| Biology | ~0.5 |
| All science (aggregate) | ~1.0 |